Maharashtra done: What next?

What’s the one big lesson that comes out from the assembly election results of Maharashtra, Jharkhand and the by-polls of UP? That the BJP has put the setback of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls well and truly behind. 

BJP: From setback to comeback

A source in the PMO had told me in the immediate aftermath of Lok Sabha polls,” PM Modi isn’t someone who looks behind. He is already thinking of what corrective steps to take so that 2029 doesn’t end up being 2024”. We got a glimpse of this in Haryana, where hardly anyone expected the BJP to win but it did. And now in Maharashtra where very few expected the kind of landslide victory that has been achieved. 

Many would attribute this to social welfare schemes such as Laadki Bahana Yojana implemented by the Eknath Shinde-led government. But then if mere freebies were the path to electoral success, in each election Congress hasn’t been too far behind in terms of making these promises. So what then segregates Congress and BJP? What makes the Congress fritter away the momentum it has got in June 2024? Conversely, what makes BJP get back on its feet and start running again?

In one of my regular trips to BJP headquarters a few weeks after Lok Sabha results, a senior strategist told me over a cup of coffee, “ We are aware what went wrong. You will have to give us some time before we analyse and come to a conclusion. But once we have concluded, let me assure you that we will be like a wounded tiger. More dangerous for the opposition “. When you look at Maharashtra, you figure out what he meant. Ask yourself, right through the campaign, was there any bickering on who will get how many seats? Did we hear any contrarian voices on who will be the CM? Barring the odd strategic comments made by Ajit Pawar about his uncle Sharad Pawar, there was hardly a false step in the NDA campaign. Compare this to the MVA, late in declaring tickets, constant barbs between senior leadership of UBT and Congress, it all made it look like a battle between a house badly divided and a club which was only running with one destination, victory! 

What makes the Maharashtra result even more interesting is that it also cemented Yogi Adityanath as a campaigner of impact. PM Modi was there on the campaign trail, but he wasn’t doing the heavy lifting of the past this time! In parts of Vidarbha where we travelled, the curiosity, and excitement were about the Yogi campaign. That’s where the “ Ek Hain to sare hain “ slogan worked. 

Unity vs Chaos: NDA vs MVA

While the BJP will be counting its pluses from this victory in Maharashtra, the Congress really needs to go back to the drawing board. Over the last five years, it has lost almost the entire rank of young leadership built by Rahul Gandhi. Jyotiraditya Scindia, RPN Singh, Ravneet Singh Bittu, Milind Deora. Jitin Prasad had left a long while back already. This time Rahul counted on KC Venugopal as his strategist. The election was allowed in large parts to be run by local leadership. He is now stuck in a situation where his young guard isn’t firing and the older lot can’t move beyond its vested interests. 

Is there anyone in the Congress who will ask a question to KC Venugopal? Or for that matter Ajay Maken the party treasurer. What value is Ashok Gahlot bringing now? Both Supriya Shrinate and Pawan Khera are outstanding fighters. But they need a helluva lot of political strategic backing if the Congress has to make a match with the BJP in critical states. 

Increasingly we are moving back to a political cycle where the BJP became invincible in many parts of the country. Just look at the number of states where the BJP has been in power for over a decade now, with a few hiccups for a short while in between. Maharashtra, Haryana, UP, Bihar. Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh have become BJP citadels which can’t be breached. 

In conclusion: the BJP is back to being the brutal election-winning machinery. Congress is back to frittering away advantages which it may have got earlier.