No reputed pollster ready to predict Delhi election result

In a surprising bunch of exit polls, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appears to be on the verge of securing victory in the Delhi state elections, a success that would conclude 27 years of 'drought', most reputed polling agencies were conspicuous by their absence on television in the evening of 5 February. Should these forecasts prove accurate, the BJP is positioned to terminate the nearly 10-year governance of the purportedly reformist Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in the national capital territory and regain control of the Delhi assembly.

In the video above, Bhupendra Chaubey is viewing the exit polls with a fair degree of scepticism.

Chanakya Strategies has projected that the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is likely to secure between 25 and 28 seats whereas the BJP is expected to obtain between 39 and 44 seats, and the Congress may achieve a maximum of three seats.

DV Research anticipates that the AAP will win between 26 and 34 seats, the BJP will garner between 36 and 44 seats, and the Congress is predicted to receive no seats.

A comprehensive "poll of polls" indicated that the pro-Hindu BJP is projected to obtain 43 seats, while AAP is expected to secure 26. The secular Congress party, under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi, is anticipated to win merely one seat in a region that was once a bastion for the party. However, some individual polls have suggested a more competitive race, and AAP has contended that the exit polls are inaccurate.

AAP is not buying it

Exit polls have consistently misrepresented the AAP, according to spokesperson Priyanka Kakkar, who asserted that the AAP has historically achieved significant electoral victories, and this occasion will be no exception. In the 2020 elections, the AAP secured 62 out of 70 assembly seats, leaving the BJP with just eight.

A loss for the AAP would mean a considerable blow to the anti-establishment party and its leader, Arvind Kejriwal, an activist whose anti-corruption initiatives propelled him to power in Delhi in 2015. Kejriwal has been striving to expand the party's influence on a national scale.

Exit polls in Delhi's elections have demonstrated varying levels of precision since the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) came to prominence in 2013. In that inaugural year, the polls accurately forecasted a hung Assembly but significantly misjudged AAP's actual support.

In the subsequent elections of 2015 and 2020, while exit polls predicted victories for AAP, they consistently failed to capture the full magnitude of their success, underestimating the number of seats won. For example, in 2015, the average prediction was 45 seats for AAP, whereas the party secured 67 seats.

By 2020, however, the accuracy of predictions improved, with exit polls closely reflecting AAP's eventual victory of 62 seats, suggesting a gradual refinement in polling methodologies over time.

Promise broken and hopes dashed?

Founded in 2012, Kejriwal touted the party as a movement for ordinary citizens, pledging to enhance essential services such as healthcare, electricity, water and education.

Kejriwal, whose party emblem is a broom, is not only a vocal opponent of Prime Minister Modi but also one who hits below the belt with insinuations such as "chauthi pass" (somebody who never saw school beyond Class IV), which many political observers believe proved his undoing. The prime minister actively campaigned against the AAP in the lead-up to the Delhi elections, participating in numerous rallies.

Implications if exit polls come true

A projected victory for the BJP would provide a significant boost for the party following a lacklustre performance in the May 2024 general elections, where it failed to secure an outright majority in parliament and formed a government with coalition partners.

Following recent successes in Maharashtra and Haryana since the national elections, the BJP's prospects appear to improve. The official election results are anticipated on Saturday.

Throughout the campaign, all three parties sought to attract voters with promises of various incentives, including free water, electricity, and cash benefits.

The AAP's governance approach is centred on popular welfare initiatives that have garnered substantial public support. The party has also positioned itself as a "squeaky clean" alternative to both the BJP and Congress.

However, its second term has been marred by corruption allegations, resulting in the imprisonment of Kejriwal, who served as chief minister, along with two of his closest ministers for extended periods.