Unveiling trade secret of Nitish Kumar: Mastery of political chess in stagnant economy of Bihar

In the labyrinthine world of Indian politics, few figures embody resilience and adaptability quite like Nitish Kumar, the long-serving chief minister of Bihar. Often dubbed the 'Sushasan Babu' (Mr Good Governance) for his early reforms, Kumar has navigated the state's turbulent political waters since 2005, emerging unscathed from multiple alliances and betrayals. Yet, as Bihar continues to grapple with economic underperformance – boasting the lowest per capita income in India and dismal human development indices – questions arise about the so-called 'trade secret' that sustains his dominance. This article delves into the intricacies of Kumar's strategy, drawing on recent analyses and data to unpack how his political acumen has overshadowed substantive economic progress.

Kumar's journey is a testament to strategic pragmatism. Born in 1951 in Bakhtiarpur, Bihar, he entered politics in the 1970s, influenced by socialist ideals and the anti-Emergency movement. His rise accelerated in the 1990s through the Samata Party, which later merged into the Janata Dal (United). By 2005, he ousted the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) regime led by Lalu Prasad Yadav, promising to end the 'jungle raj' – an era marked by lawlessness and corruption. Initial years under Kumar saw tangible improvements: roads were built, electricity reached remote villages, and school enrolment surged, particularly among girls, through schemes like free bicycles and uniforms.

However, Bihar's economic narrative remains one of unfulfilled potential. Despite a reported gross state domestic product (GSDP) growth rate of around 8.64% in recent fiscal years, the state lags far behind national averages. As of 2025, Bihar's per capita income hovers at approximately ₹69,321 at current prices, a stark contrast to India's national average of over ₹1.7 lakh. This disparity underscores a broader failure: while Kumar's administration has invested in infrastructure, industrial growth has stagnated, with the sector contributing a mere 4% to GSDP post-bifurcation from Jharkhand in 2000. Human development indices (HDI) paint an equally grim picture, with Bihar scoring 0.609 – the lowest among Indian states – against the national average of 0.644. Factors such as high population density, migration for jobs, and inadequate skill development perpetuate this cycle of poverty.

What, then, is Kumar's 'trade secret'? Observers point to his masterful command of caste arithmetic and opportunistic alliances, allowing him to retain power amid shifting loyalties. In a state where caste identities dictate electoral outcomes, Kumar has cultivated a broad coalition, including Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), Mahadalits, and women voters. His 2006 reservation policy for EBCs, providing quotas in local bodies and education, remains a cornerstone of his appeal, mobilising a fragmented voter base that feels empowered. This social engineering, combined with welfare schemes like cash transfers to women and youth, has created a loyal constituency that prioritises immediate benefits over long-term economic transformation.

Kumar's reputation for personal integrity further bolsters his image. Unlike many contemporaries, he has avoided dynastic politics, refraining from promoting family members, and faced no major corruption allegations despite decades in office. This 'clean' persona contrasts sharply with predecessors like Yadav, whose regime was mired in scandals. Yet, critics argue this integrity is superficial, masking systemic issues such as the alleged liquor mafia ties and administrative complicity in illicit trade, which reportedly funnels funds to his party. Nonetheless, these whispers have not dented his electoral fortunes, as evidenced by the National Democratic Alliance's (NDA) landslide in the 2025 Bihar assembly elections.

In today’s LIVE discussion, a Bhupendra Chaubey-led panel broke down the contradictions behind Bihar’s economy, politics and voter behaviour — and how this reality produced NDA’s most significant victory in the state. [Watch the video above] 

Art of political flip-flops: Kumar's knight moves

One of the most intriguing aspects of Nitish Kumar's 'trade secret' is his uncanny ability to switch alliances without alienating core supporters. Often likened to a knight on a chessboard – capable of unpredictable leaps – Kumar has flipped sides multiple times since 2005. He allied with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in 2005, broke away in 2013 over Narendra Modi's rise, rejoined the Mahagathbandhan with RJD in 2015, parted ways again in 2017, citing corruption, and realigned with the BJP in 2017. The pattern repeated in 2022 with another RJD tie-up, only to return to NDA in 2024.

This 'palace coup' strategy, as some term it, ensures Kumar's survival by keeping opponents off-balance. In the most recent elections, his volte-face on freebies – once criticised as fiscal irresponsibility – proved pivotal. The NDA's promises, including tablets for community workers and cash for unemployed youth, resonated with voters, powering a historic win. Cash transfers, particularly to women, have become a staple of Indian electoral politics, with Bihar exemplifying their efficacy. Kumar's Mahila-Yuva (women-youth) formula, blending gender-focused schemes with youth incentives, underscores this approach.

Such manoeuvres have not come without cost. Kumar's frequent shifts earned him the moniker 'Paltu Ram' (the flip-flopper), and questions about his mental fitness surfaced in 2023 following erratic public behaviour. Allegations of blackmail by BJP allies add intrigue, suggesting external pressures influence his decisions. Yet, his secret lies in leveraging these flips to consolidate power, often riding on Modi's national appeal – as in 2020, where the 'Modi factor' salvaged his party's performance. This adaptability has kept him undefeated, transforming potential liabilities into strengths.

Beyond alliances, Kumar's governance model emphasises law and order, a marked improvement from the pre-2005 era. Kidnappings and extortion plummeted, fostering a safer environment that attracted some investment as an electrical engineer from NIT Patna. Kumar's technical background informed reforms like railway modernisation during his Union ministerial stint, including internet bookings and tatkal reservations. In Bihar, similar pragmatism drove infrastructure pushes, with GSDP expanding at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.3% from 2005 to 2025, outpacing India's 10.4% in real terms. However, this growth masks inequalities; Bihar's economy, heavily reliant on services (over 50% of GSDP) and agriculture (around 20%), suffers from low productivity and climate vulnerabilities.

Governance gains amid economic stagnation

Nitish Kumar's tenure has undeniably transformed Bihar's social landscape, a key element of his 'trade secret'. School enrolment rates, especially for girls, have soared, ending the 'BIMARU' (sickly) legacy associated with backward states. Access to electricity and piped water has improved faster than national averages, bringing living standards closer to India's mean. Health metrics, such as maternal mortality, have declined, and schemes like the Mukhyamantri Balika Cycle Yojana have empowered women, boosting female voter turnout.

These gains stem from increased public investment and fiscal discipline. Bihar's finances strengthened under Kumar, with higher revenue collection enabling infrastructure spending. The state's GSDP is projected at ₹10.97 lakh crore for 2025-26, with a 22% growth rate – impressive on paper. Yet, critics highlight a loss of momentum: post-2015, growth slowed, hampered by demonetisation, GST, and the pandemic. Industrial stagnation persists, with Bihar attracting minimal foreign direct investment compared to states like Gujarat or Maharashtra.

The per capita income gap exemplifies this paradox. At $819 (around ₹69,000), Bihar's figure is lower than even Nigeria's $807, reflecting deep-seated issues like out-migration and unskilled labour. While Uttar Pradesh, a comparable state, has narrowed its gap with Bihar through targeted industrial policies, Bihar's youth remain sidelined from India's growth story. Kumar's administration has been faulted for not fostering private sector jobs, relying instead on government schemes that offer short-term relief but no structural change.

Literacy rates, at 61.8%, lag the national 74%, impeding human capital development. Despite initiatives, Bihar ranks last in most social indicators, with poverty rates exceeding 30%. Kumar's 'trade secret' here is voter management: by focusing on visible, identity-based reforms, he diverts attention from economic failings. The 2025 NDA victory, blending caste appeals with freebies, illustrates this – a strategy that prioritises electoral viability over sustainable development.

Road ahead: Can Kumar's secret sustain Bihar?

As Nitish Kumar eyes another term post-2025 polls, his 'trade secret' – a blend of political agility, social welfare, and an unblemished personal image – faces scrutiny. While law and order improvements and reservation policies have cemented his legacy, Bihar's economic lag demands bolder reforms. Industrial corridors, skill hubs, and agricultural modernisation could bridge the per capita income chasm, but require consistent alliances and federal support.

Critics, including opposition leaders, argue Kumar's flips erode trust, potentially isolating him in future coalitions. External factors, like alleged BJP leverage, add uncertainty. Yet, his pendulum-like resilience – keeping all options open – suggests adaptability will prevail.

In conclusion, Nitish Kumar's 'trade secret' is not a singular tactic but a mosaic of cunning, caste calculus, and calculated risks. It has propelled him through two decades of rule, but Bihar's abysmal indices beg the question: at what cost? Actual progress requires transcending survival politics for inclusive growth. Until then, Kumar remains the enigmatic knight, leaping across Bihar's chessboard while the state awaits its economic checkmate.