Will Modi break tradition of attending G7 Summit if invited by Canada?

As Canada has yet to issue an invitation, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to miss the G7 Summit for the first time in six years, according to sources on May 2. This year’s G7 Summit is scheduled to be hosted by the Canadian government, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, at the resort of Kananaskis in Alberta from June 15 to 17.

Furthermore, the aforementioned sources, who requested anonymity, indicated that the groundwork for a reset in India-Canada relations has not been established.

While most Indian media outlets say Canada has not invited Prime Minister Modi yet, Pakistani news website Dawn does not mention "yet", implicitly inferring Canada does not want cordial relations with India. 

Bilateral relations reached a historic low following allegations made by former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in September 2023, claiming that agents of the Indian government were involved in the assassination of Khalistani separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar. India rejected these claims as “absurd,” leading to both nations expelling each other’s diplomats and downgrading their diplomatic ties.

Even post-Trudeau, India-Canada relations not normal

Although Carney’s election victory had sparked optimism for a thaw in bilateral relations, the sources noted that the necessary components for progress are still lacking.

Despite the exchange of positive messages in private between New Delhi and Ottawa, this may not result in Modi attending the G7 Summit, according to the sources.

“A meeting between the top leadership would have heightened expectations for a breakthrough, but more work needs to be done for a reset of the relationship,” a source said.

Since 2019, the Indian Prime Minister has received invitations to the outreach session of the G7 Summit from France, the UK, Germany, Japan, and Italy, acknowledging India’s increasing economic significance and its role in addressing global challenges.

The sources suggested that India and Canada could initiate the improvement of their relations by appointing high commissioners in each other’s capitals. These positions have remained unfilled since India recalled its envoy last year after he, along with five other diplomats, was identified as a “person of interest” in the investigation concerning Nijjar’s assassination.

Hope amidst unease

The Indian government has expressed concerns regarding the activities of Khalistani elements in Canada, particularly the potential for protests during any high-level visit from India.

Organisations involved in the trade corridor between India and Canada, along with community groups, had previously received indications that a visit might be feasible. A meeting with CEOs from prominent Canadian companies was planned to take place in Calgary; however, although the event has not been cancelled, it will no longer occur at the originally intended scale.

Additionally, the Indian side had been considering a visit to Vancouver and the organisation of events there, including an engagement with the Indo-Canadian community. This plan is also currently on hold, according to sources.

While Carney’s administration aims to restore the bilateral relationship, the current emphasis is on gradually improving it. Canada’s foreign minister, Anita Anand, who recently had a phone conversation with her Indian counterpart, S Jaishankar, conveyed this sentiment in a media interview last week, stating that the renewal would occur "one step at a time".

There is also pressure from pro-Khalistan and anti-India factions on Ottawa to refrain from inviting Modi. Public expressions of opinion on this matter have been made, and the secessionist group Sikhs for Justice (SFJ) has organised protests should Modi visit Canada.

So far, Canada has not officially announced invitations to any partner nations; however, Carney has mentioned that Ukraine, Australia, and South Korea will be attending the G7 Summit, and reports are indicating that the leaders of Mexico and South Africa, who are hosting the G20 this year, will also be present in Alberta.