Bihar voters split on freebies and SIR row in tight NDA vs Mahagathbandhan race: Vote Vibe

As Bihar gears up for its assembly elections in October or November 2025, recent opinion polls paint a picture of a fiercely contested battle between Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the opposition Mahagathbandhan led by Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) chief Tejashwi Yadav. Vote Vibe and other surveys conducted over the past month—spanning late August to mid-September—reveal a near-even split in voter sentiment, with the NDA's promises of "freebies" such as free electricity, expanded pensions and women's welfare schemes drawing strong support, particularly among women and older voters, while widespread outrage over the Election Commission's Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls has boosted the Mahagathbandhan's appeal among youth, minorities and migrant communities. 

With the 243-seat assembly requiring 122 for a majority, the polls suggest the NDA could edge out a win with 130-140 seats if alliances hold. Still, the Mahagathbandhan's focus on alleged voter disenfranchisement could swing undecided voters, potentially limiting the ruling coalition to below the halfway mark. This dichotomy underscores Bihar's complex political landscape, where welfare largesse clashes with accusations of electoral manipulation in a state long plagued by poverty, migration and caste dynamics.

NDA's freebies woo key voter blocs

Nitish Kumar's NDA, comprising the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) and smaller allies like the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), has aggressively rolled out welfare measures in the run-up to the polls, positioning them as tangible benefits for Bihar's underserved masses. Polls indicate these "freebies"—including 200 units of free electricity for households, enhanced old-age pensions up to Rs 1,000 monthly and cycles for schoolgirls—have resonated deeply, especially with women, who form a crucial 49% of the electorate.

A mid-September InkInsight survey, released on 13 September, found that 60.4% of women respondents favoured the NDA, crediting schemes like the Mukhyamantri Kanya Utthan Yojana for empowering families. This gender skew is echoed in an earlier InkInsight poll from early July, where 48.9% overall backed the NDA, rising to over 60% among women, compared to just 28.4% for the Mahagathbandhan. The NDA's vote share is projected to be 45-50% in these surveys, translating to 130-136 seats. The BJP is expected to bag 64-81 seats—a jump from 74 in 2020—thanks to its strong urban and upper-caste base.

The August 28 Times Now-JVC opinion poll reinforces this, forecasting 136 seats for the NDA against 75 for the Mahagathbandhan, attributing the lead to welfare populism amid Bihar's economic woes, where over 40% live below the poverty line. Among other backward classes (OBCs), a key swing group, 43% leaned towards the NDA in the latest Vote Vibe survey from 14 September, up from 35% in July, as promises of job quotas and infrastructure like the Rs 7,616 crore rail and expressway projects announced last week gain traction. Upper castes, at 55% support, remain solidly behind the alliance, viewing Nitish's "Sushasan" (good governance) as a bulwark against the RJD's perceived "jungle raj".

However, not all polls are unanimous. The India Today-CVoter Mood of the Nation survey from late August projected a slimmer NDA edge, with 50% vote share (up from 47% in 2024 Lok Sabha polls), but cautioned that assembly trends could differ due to local issues. Union Minister Nityanand Rai's claim on 31 August of the NDA crossing 200 seats appears overly optimistic, clashing with more grounded projections. Still, across surveys, 40-50% of voters—particularly in rural areas and among those over 45—cite freebies as a primary reason for backing the NDA, seeing them as lifelines in a state where migration for work affects 20% of households.

Mahagathbandhan rides wave of SIR anger

Conversely, the Mahagathbandhan—encompassing the RJD, Congress and Left parties—has weaponised public fury over the SIR exercise, launched by the Election Commission in June 2025 to update voter rolls ahead of the polls. The revision, requiring fresh documentation for inclusions since 2003, led to the deletion of over 65 lakh names by early September, sparking allegations of targeted disenfranchisement of minorities, Dalits and migrants—core Mahagathbandhan voters.

Tejashwi Yadav's dramatic claim in August that even his name was scrubbed from lists (later debunked by the EC as a "fake" EPIC) ignited protests, including Rahul Gandhi's Voter Adhikar Yatra, which concluded on 1 September. Polls show this resonating strongly: the Vote Vibe survey pegged Mahagathbandhan support at 35.8%, nearly matching the NDA's 36.2%, with 70% of Muslims—17% of Bihar's population—backing the alliance, up 5% from July due to SIR grievances. Youth (18-24) showed 57% anti-incumbency against Nitish, favouring the opposition by 10 points, as deletions disproportionately hit under-40s (37.8% of total) in key districts like Patna, where they exceed 2020 winning margins in two-thirds of seats.

The Times Now-JVC poll from 28 August projected 75 seats for the Mahagathbandhan, with RJD alone at 52, driven by SIR backlash in migrant-heavy areas. An India Today-CVoter poll on 29 August found 58% viewed SIR positively as ensuring "only citizens vote", but opposition strongholds like Madhubani saw 42% deletions, fuelling boycott calls. The July Federal opinion poll had the Mahagathbandhan at 36.1% (edging NDA's 35.4%), with undecideds at 12% potentially tipping towards Tejashwi on unemployment and SIR issues.

Cracks in alliances add intrigue: Congress demands 60-70 seats, straining ties, while Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj polls at 10% (21% among youth), siphoning votes from both sides and potentially acting as kingmaker with 2-13 seats. On X, sentiments reflect this divide, with users decrying SIR as "vote chori" while praising NDA freebies, though neutral posts highlight 25% "other" votes in past elections seeking alternatives.

A close contest with undecideds in play

Aggregating polls from the past month, the NDA holds a slender lead: average vote share of 45-48% (vs Mahagathbandhan's 35-38%), projecting 130-140 seats for the ruling alliance and 70-80 for the opposition, with 20-30 for others like Jan Suraaj. Freebies appeal to 40-50% of voters, especially women (60%+ NDA support), while SIR anger mobilises 30-40%, particularly Muslims and youth (70% and 57% anti-NDA respectively).

Yet, the race remains tight: 12% undecideds could swing on caste (Yadavs at 32.5% NDA shift) and migration issues. The Supreme Court's 15 September refusal to halt SIR but urging inclusive verification may temper opposition gains. As Bihar's 7.5 crore voters decide, this freebies-vs-fraud narrative could define the polls, testing Nitish's survival instincts in a state craving change.