Chirag Paswan stakes claim in Bihar: Ambition, alliances, art of political timing

Ram Vilas Paswan earned a reputation as the ultimate political weathercock—always able to detect which way the wind was blowing and align accordingly. His son, Chirag Paswan, now Union Minister and leader of the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), seems to be inheriting not just his father’s legacy, but also his instincts.

As Bihar gears up for its assembly elections later this year, Chirag finds himself under the spotlight—not merely for being his father’s heir, but as a potential disruptor within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

Paswan’s positioning: Strength, defiance and strategy

In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Chirag’s LJP-RV secured all five seats it contested, reinforcing his credentials within the NDA. Buoyed by this success, he has announced plans to contest all 243 assembly seats, while still remaining within the alliance.

At public rallies in Ara and Saran, he emphasised his "Bihar First, Bihari First" vision, which he says is targeted at youth, women, and Dalit voters. His messaging taps into the themes of social justice, economic growth and affirmative action. Paswan’s goal is clear—expand beyond caste loyalties, establish a broader identity, and raise the party’s influence beyond its traditional vote bank.

In 2024, LJP-RV polled about 6.5% of the vote, up from 5.5% in the 2020 assembly polls—a modest but significant growth that he hopes to convert into bargaining power.

NDA’s internal friction: A rerun of 2020?

Paswan’s assertive moves have rattled some feathers—particularly within Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United). The JD(U) remains wary of a repeat of 2020, when Chirag, then outside the NDA, fielded candidates against Kumar’s party in 135 seats. Though he didn’t win many, his candidates ate into JD(U) votes in 64 constituencies, damaging Kumar’s strike rate and emboldening the BJP within the alliance.

Now that he’s formally within the NDA, Chirag’s commitment is being tested. He continues to criticise Bihar’s law and order situation, citing recent high-profile murders in Patna and Nalanda, and has publicly declared that he will not accept the post of deputy chief minister—an ambiguous statement that many interpreted as a veiled challenge to Nitish Kumar.

Is he laying the groundwork for a future bid to become CM? Officially, Paswan denies it. Unofficially, his actions suggest otherwise.

Bargaining hard: 40 seats or bust?

Behind the scenes, Chirag Paswan is using his vote share as leverage in seat-sharing negotiations. The LJP-RV is reportedly demanding around 40 seats—ambitious, given that the BJP and JD(U) are each eyeing 100. Analysts believe Paswan is using this aggressive stance not necessarily to win those many seats, but to maximise his negotiating power.

His political playbook is a blend of defiance and diplomacy: While he toes the NDA line when needed—such as backing BJP-RSS criticism of the Constitution’s ‘socialist’ and ‘secular’ terms—he also opposes NDA pet themes like lateral entry into government or the new street vendor name-plate rules. It’s a delicate dance of loyalty and independence.

RJD on alert: Paswan’s challenge to the opposition

The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), led by Tejashwi Yadav, sees Paswan’s rise as a direct threat—particularly among Dalit and Extremely Backward Class (EBC) voters. Yadav has openly questioned Paswan’s motives, hinting at chief ministerial ambitions. In response, Paswan has accused the RJD-Congress alliance of historical injustice and failing to uphold Bahujan rights.

Though LJP-RV’s current assembly strength is zero—it won only one seat in 2020—Chirag’s growing national profile and his youth appeal could disrupt Bihar’s traditionally caste-driven politics.

The bigger picture: Kingmaker or disrupter?

With his party’s limited track record in state politics, Chirag Paswan’s real test lies ahead. Even a small bloc of MLAs could prove pivotal in a tight race. As a potential coalition pivot, he may not need to win many seats to shape the next Bihar government.

If he has indeed inherited his father’s talent for reading political currents, then Bihar’s 2025 elections could mark Chirag Paswan’s biggest move yet. One that might redefine not just his party’s identity—but the NDA’s future in the state.