Analysing the 2015 and 2020 Delhi Legislative Assembly election results reveals several constituencies where the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) experienced a reduced margin of victory.
This trend indicates potential vulnerabilities that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could exploit in the upcoming 2025 elections.
Constituencies with reduced victory margins
- Bijwasan:
- 2015: Col. Devinder Sehrawat (AAP) won by over 19,000 votes
- 2020: Bhupinder Singh Joon (AAP) secured victory by a narrow margin of 753 votes
- Laxmi Nagar:
- 2015: Nitin Tyagi (AAP) won by approximately 28,000 votes
- 2020: Victory margin reduced to around 3,500 votes
- Rohini:
- 2015: Rajesh Gupta (AAP) won by about 23,000 votes
- 2020: Margin decreased to approximately 3,000 votes
- Dwarka:
- 2015: Adarsh Shastri (AAP) secured a win by over 39,000 votes
- 2020: Vinay Mishra (AAP) won with a reduced margin of about 12,000 votes
- Karawal Nagar:
- 2015: Kapil Mishra (AAP) achieved victory by nearly 44,000 votes
- 2020: Durgesh Pathak (AAP) won with a margin of around 4,500 votes
- Gandhi Nagar:
- 2015: Anil Kumar Bajpai (AAP) won by approximately 10,000 votes
- 2020: Naveen Chaudhary (AAP) secured victory by about 2,000 votes
- Delhi Cantt:
- 2015: Surinder Singh (AAP) won by over 16,000 votes
- 2020: Virender Singh Kadian (AAP) won with a margin of around 3,200 votes
- Malviya Nagar:
- 2015: Somnath Bharti (AAP) secured victory by approximately 15,000 votes
- 2020: Margin reduced to about 2,800 votes
- Seelampur:
- 2015: Mohammad Ishraque (AAP) won by around 27,000 votes
- 2020: Abdul Rehman (AAP) secured victory by approximately 5,000 votes
- New Delhi:
- 2015: Arvind Kejriwal (AAP) won by over 31,000 votes
- 2020: Victory margin decreased to around 21,000 votes
The considerable reduction in victory margins in these constituencies between the 2015 and 2020 elections suggests areas where AAP's dominance has weakened. The BJP, having increased its seat count from 3 in 2015 to 8 in 2020, could target these constituencies in the 2025 elections.
Focused campaigning, addressing local issues, and selecting strong candidates may enhance BJP's prospects in these areas.
Low-margin victories
Next is a list of constituencies in Delhi where the victory margin was less than 5,000 votes in the 2020 assembly election.
In the 2020 Delhi Legislative Assembly elections, several constituencies witnessed closely contested races, with victory margins of less than 5,000 votes. These narrow margins highlight areas where electoral competition was particularly intense.
Below is a list of such constituencies, along with the winning candidates, their parties, and the respective victory margins:
- Bijwasan:
- Winner: Bhupinder Singh Joon (AAP)
- Runner-up: Sat Prakash Rana (BJP)
- Margin: 753 votes
- Laxmi Nagar:
- Winner: Nitin Tyagi (AAP)
- Runner-up: Abhay Verma (BJP)
- Margin: 880 votes
- Rohini:
- Winner: Rajesh Nama Bansiwala (AAP)
- Runner-up: Vijender Gupta (BJP)
- Margin: 1,064 votes
- Dwarka:
- Winner: Vinay Mishra (AAP)
- Runner-up: Pradyumn Rajput (BJP)
- Margin: 1,484 votes
- Karawal Nagar:
- Winner: Durgesh Pathak (AAP)
- Runner-up: Mohan Singh Bisht (BJP)
- Margin: 4,502 votes
- Gandhi Nagar:
- Winner: Naveen Chaudhary (AAP)
- Runner-up: Anil Kumar Bajpai (BJP)
- Margin: 2,864 votes
- Delhi Cantt:
- Winner: Virender Singh Kadian (AAP)
- Runner-up: Manish Singh (BJP)
- Margin: 3,239 votes
- Malviya Nagar:
- Winner: Somnath Bharti (AAP)
- Runner-up: Shailender Singh Monty (BJP)
- Margin: 2,828 votes
- Seelampur:
- Winner: Abdul Rehman (AAP)
- Runner-up: Kaushal Kumar Mishra (BJP)
- Margin: 4,385 votes
- New Delhi:
- Winner: Arvind Kejriwal (AAP)
- Runner-up: Sunil Yadav (BJP)
- Margin: 3,819 votes
These constituencies, with their slim victory margins, underscore the competitive political landscape in Delhi during the 2020 elections. They may serve as focal points for major parties in future electoral strategies.